南台課程大綱
學年度 106學年第一學期 系所 休閒系
課程名稱 休閒趨勢分析及評估 班級 碩專休閒二甲
授課教師 凌瑞賢 點 閱 次 數 19
選修
必修
課程概述
Tourism demand forecasting play a key role in operational decisions, market planning and financial analysis. This course provides the student with the tools and methods necessary to understand, analyze, and apply tourism demand forecasting models.
課程目標
This course introduces the two most common forecasting methods: extrapolation, where the history of the variable being forecast is the singular element used to produce a forecast, and causal modeling, which seeks an explanation for changes. Upon completion of the course, the student should be able to:
1. Understand the major trends occurring in the hospitality and tourism industry and develop analytical skills required to interpret them.
2. Understand the key aspects of tourism demand and demand forecasting.
3. Use skill and knowledge of modeling techniques to hospitality and tourism demand forecasting and how they should be evaluated.
4. Use various approaches to forecast hospitality and tourism trends.
課程大綱
1. 導論
2. 預測方法與評估
3. 觀光預測程序
4. 簡單外插法及分解法
5. 指數平滑法及自我回歸法
6. Box-Jenkins法
7. 迴歸分析法
8. 結構性計量經濟模式
9. 質性預測方法
10. 評估方法
英文大綱
1. Introduction
2. Alternative forecasting methods and evaluation
3. The tourism forecasting process
4. Basic extrapolative models and decomposition
5. Intermediate extrapolative methods
6. An advanced extrapolative method
7. Causal methods- regression analysis
8. Causal methods- structure econometric models
9. Qualitative forecasting methods
10. Evaluation methods
下載
Doc Pdf
連結(一) 連結(二)

上一頁